Should I buy NVDA before earnings?
Live·11:18 EST

Brief generated in 3.2s · Synthesized from 24 sources · Illustrative demo data

Bottom line

Bullish setup but expensive entry. Options market pricing a ±9.2% earnings move (above 8-quarter average of 7.4%). IV rank at 78 means premium-selling structures favored over directional longs. Recent unusual flow leans bullish. Three structures below balance upside capture vs IV crush risk.

Price
$142.30
+1.8% today
Market cap
$3.48T
megacap
IV rank
78
elevated
Fwd P/E
42.8
+38% vs S&P
Short interest
1.4%
low
Wed May 28, after close
8 days away
Implied move
±9.2%
Avg historical
±7.4%
Beat rate
7 of 8

Implied move is 24% above the 8-quarter average — options are pricing more uncertainty than history justifies. Classic IV crush setup: vol typically collapses 35-50% the morning after print.

bullish skew
Call/put ratio 2.3 (vs avg 1.4)
  • 10:42Block: 8,500 NVDA Jun 20 $160C @ $4.20$3.6M premium
  • 09:31Sweep: 4,200 NVDA May 30 $150C @ $2.80$1.2M premium
  • YestBlock: 12,000 NVDA Jun 20 $135P sold @ $1.40$1.7M credit
Resistance
$148.50
Pivot
$140.00
Support
$132.80
200-day MA
$128.40

Trading above all major MAs, near 21-day pivot. RSI 58 (room to run). Bull flag from $135 base — measured move targets $156.

  • Bullish
    Saudi PIF expands AI partnership
    extends 250K H200 chip commitment, $14B order book impact
    Reuters·2d ago
  • Bullish
    Morgan Stanley raises PT to $170
    reiterates Overweight, calls earnings 'setup for surprise'
    MS·4d ago
  • Risk
    China export controls expanded
    Commerce Dept adds 3 NVDA SKUs to restricted list, ~$2B revenue exposure
    Bloomberg·6d ago
$135/$140 bull put spread · Jun 20

Sells inflated IV. Profitable above $140 at expiry. Best risk/reward given IV rank.

Credit
$185
Max risk
$315
Breakeven
$138.15
PoP
67%
$145/$160 call debit spread · Jun 20

Capped upside, defined risk. Survives IV crush better than long calls.

Cost
$520
Max gain
$980
Breakeven
$150.20
PoP
38%
100 shares + $150C covered · Jun 20

Own the stock, sell premium against it. Reduces cost basis by $310.

Cost
$13,920
Max gain
$1,080
Breakeven
$139.20
PoP
62%
  • IV crushlong premium positions lose 35-50% overnight if vol collapses
  • Guidance misslast 2 selloffs were forward guidance, not current quarter
  • China headline riskfurther export expansion could hit guidance directly